US President George W Bush for once got it right on November 20 when he predicted that General Pervez Musharraf would quit as army chief before the month was out as he had pledged because “he was a man of his word”. Some of us too had argued as much, not because we thought he was a man of his word (he’s an opportunist) but because the nature of circumstances was such that he had no choice in the matter. There were, of course, many Doubting Thomases who still insisted he would clutch at one rhyme or reason to hang on to his uniform. But who can blame them? Most dictators tend to die with their boots on rather than fade away when the time is nigh. It is also futile to debate what would have happened if the judges under Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry had tactically drawn the line between reasonable independence and undue activism and not tried to overthrow General Musharraf before he had shed his uniform and the powers that went with it, the same powers that he used to sack the court and renew himself as a civilian president. So it’s time to move on.
Mr Musharraf has got to ensure that the dubious legitimacy acquired unconstitutionally is indemnified by a sovereign parliament. The first step in that direction will be to get everyone who matters on board the general elections. The return of Ms Benazir Bhutto and Mr Nawaz Sharif is a good sign, even though it has not been happily accepted by Mr Musharraf in good faith. For this to happen, everyone must get a level playing field. This entails an end to the state of Emergency, unshackling the media, suspension of the pro-Musharraf local bodies and neutralization of the election commission. These demands are realistic and Mr Musharraf will likely concede most, if only because a rigged election will lack credibility and trigger resistance and instability which could provoke a boycott of the political process at any stage of the game. But the demand for the restoration of the sacked judges, however justified in the interest of democracy and accountability, is unrealistic. It amounts to asking Mr Musharraf to commit political suicide right now. So we may persist with it in principle but without making everything conditional on it. Nor should we worry too much on that score. The victories of civil society and the sacrifices of the lawyers will not go in vain because they are big steps in Pakistan’s march towards a functional democracy. Given the relentless pressure of these groups, the new judges are bound to spread their wings after a transfer of power from the presidency to parliament and the political parties next year.
The second step is to activate a united front among the opposition parties with the realistic and minimal common objective of thwarting election rigging. Everyone will benefit from such an accord. Most of the electronic media is back in the game already, albeit with marginal adjustments. But we shouldn’t be too pessimistic. Even these self-imposed restrictions are likely to be aborted once everyone is back in action and the electoral game heats up. The media and the opposition are likely to make common cause, given their rough treatment at the hands of Mr Musharraf recently.
The third step is to get federal and provincial parliaments into action. Then, too, a minimal unity among the opposition will be needed to extract the most critical concessions from Mr Musharraf. That will not be easy given the conflicting pull and push of party politics and personal egos. Therefore the time to negotiate the powers of the president and his indemnification will be a litmus test for the representatives of the people and a springboard for the future of democracy in Pakistan. Equally, the politicians will be under the microscope for sharing power and making coalition governments work. If they fail, the whole process of civilianization will get discredited for the nth time and Mr Musharraf will start looking good again.
The passing of the baton is undeniably a good step, however belated and whatever the circumstances in which it has finally materialized. One can also empathize with General Musharraf’s farewell speech in which he explained his emotions on shedding his “second skin” of nearly half a decade. But it is a long leap from that backward glance to his blazing shot upon ascending the steps of the presidency when he said that he, as president, and General Ashfaq Kayani, as the new army chief, would jointly lead Pakistan to stability and prosperity. If this is his vision for the next five years, his version of bringing the army in so that it can be kept out, of putting the military’s need for stability and continuity above civil society’s demand for freedom and change, then he has another thought coming. Such contempt for all things civilian bodes ill for the proposed second coming of Mr Pervez Musharraf as a civilian president. It should strengthen the civilians’ resolve to think calmly and collectively, rather than emotionally and irrationally, about how to snatch their rights and protect them in time to come.