1993 has turned out to be a remarkable year. Who could have divined the sudden death of Gen Asif Nawaz or the appointment of Gen Abdul Waheed as his successor in January? Who could have believed that bosom establishment-buddies Nawaz Sharif and Ghulam Ishaq Khan would part ways with such bitterness? Who could have foreseen the ouster of premier Sharif by President Ishaq in April? Or Mr Sharif’s swift reinstatement by the Supreme Court in May? Or, indeed, the exit of both the President and the Prime Minister at the hands of the invisible establishment without recourse to martial law in July? Who could have predicted that Mr Moeen Qureshi, of all people, would be sworn-in as caretaker prime minister? Who could have imagined that in October we would hold the fairest elections since 1970 under the most neutral and reformist caretaker government in the country’s history?
Today all eyes are focussed on October 6th. A battle royal is expected in the Punjab. The electoral arithmetic works like this. Ms Bhutto is the frontrunner because she starts with the advantage of about 30 seats in Sindh compared to three or four only for Mr Sharif. If, as in 1988, she wins a simple majority in the Punjab (about 55 seats) she can expect to take at least 95 PPP seats, which is good enough to form a coalition government. But if she sweeps the Punjab, she will be strong enough to cobble a two-thirds majority in parliament. On the other side, Mr Sharif will have to sweep the Punjab and the NWFP as in 1990 as well as ally with the MQM if he wants to be prime minister.
Of course, there may be some surprises ahead. Some people say that Qazi Hussain Ahmad’s histrionics will put an end to Mr Sharif’s career prematurely. Others wonder whether Murtaza Bhutto, Altaf Hussain and Nawaz Sharif will together cut Benazir Bhutto down to size. Many worry about the implications of a hung parliament and despair at the thought of a coalition government in Islamabad. Everyone dreads a Centre-Punjab conflict all over again. No one knows the long-term fate of the radical reforms initiated by Mr Moeen Qureshi’s government.
Irrespective of who becomes prime minister, though, some deep-rooted disquiet will still remain. Take a look at the party manifestos of the PPP and PML(N). They are bloated with empty words and phrases. Read their multi-million media campaigns. The PPP is attacking the PML(N) for being a party of plundering crooks while the PML(N) is accusing the PPP of being a party of blundering fools. Frankly, neither can point to any credible accomplishments while in power and neither inspires much confidence about its ability to harness the future.
Try and imagine, too, what Benazir Bhutto’s future cabinet will look like if she should become prime minister. Mr Farooq Leghari apart, from among Ms Bhutto’s many favourite loyalists it is difficult to name suitable ministers of finance, commerce, interior or foreign affairs — four crucial areas which define “good” government. Harder still, the thought of Nawaz Sharif spurring Mr Sartaj Aziz to paint the country yellow is enough to make one’s stomach churn. Certainly, Mr Sharif’s last cabinet was a veritable gallery of rogues and rascals.
Then there is the question of who will be the next President of Pakistan. If neither Ms Bhutto nor Mr Sharif is able to boast a sweeping majority in the national assembly coupled with a strong showing in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh at least, the search will have to focus on a “consensus” candidate. That will take us back to the dilemma of last July when Mr Moeen Qureshi had to be “imported” from Washington in order to resolve the deadlock. Unless Mr Qureshi can be persuaded to shift from one house on the Margallas to another next month, there is much agonising uncertainty ahead on this front.
The question of how to resolve the bloody Sindhi-Mohajir divide also remains unresolved. Neither Ms Bhutto nor Mr Sharif, nor indeed President Ishaq or the Pakistan army high command, was able to find a satisfactory solution. Mr Altaf Hussain appears to be a thorn in everyone’s side. If Mr Sharif is prime minister, will he force another Jam Sadiq Ali on the PPP in Sindh? If Ms Bhutto is prime minister, will she thrust Qaim Ali Shah again on the MQM? In either case, it is not difficult to imagine the grave implications for Sindh.
All said and done, though, Ms Bhutto deserves a second chance more than Mr Sharif. As everyone knows, she got a raw deal from the establishment during her stint from 1988 to 1990. Mr Sharif, on the other hand, was the establishment’s blue-eyed boy whose ruthless quest for untrammeled power was responsible for his downfall. On another score, too, Ms Bhutto deserves the support of all Pakistanis. Whatever her failings, and she has many, she is decidedly the more modern and democratic of the two leaders. That is Pakistan’s best chance to get a berth into the next century.