Thanks to a couple of psychopaths in and around the prime minister’s cabinet, Mr Nawaz Sharif is in a soup. Damned if he bends before Benazir Bhutto and damned if he doesn’t. If his hawks were resolved to turn Parliament Square in Islamabad into Tienanmen Square in Peking before the “long march”, they’re beginning to sing quite a different tune after the event. “We won” thundered Ch Nisar on Nov. 19th. “No one won” he declared on Nov. 23rd. But the question is: Can he bring himself today to admit that his team lost the game yesterday?
What about Benazir Bhutto? If she was apprehensive on Nov 18th, she’s decidedly cock-sure today. And why shouldn’t she be? Her street-fighting mobs sense a kill in the air.
Despite the risks, however, Mr Sharif’s best bet might be to let her have her way and lead her marchers to Islamabad. If Mr Sharif knows what he is talking about, maybe the crowds might never materialize in large enough proportions to constitute any significant threat.
If, on the other hand, the government does arrest her and strengthen her image of a martyr, then Mr Sharif & Co might as well forget about niceties like parliament, human rights and democracy and go the whole hog. That is, turn the rest of the country into another permanently armed camp like Sindh.
Can they do that? Maybe, in their desperation, they might make some more authoritarian blunders, like try Benazir Bhutto and her companions for subversion. But for how long can such madness go on? The army, the President, the Americans and other power-brokers are aghast at the turn events have taken already. And they’re in no mood to sit back and shrug off Mr Nawaz Sharif’s follies at the cost of the country.
No, this is the end of Mr Sharif’s ambitions to become another Ferdinand Marcos. If he wants to live, he will have to let live. And quickly, before some more teargas is shelled.
What concessions might a democratic alternative conceivably exact from Mr Sharif? The bottom line is this. Mr Sharif will have to unilaterally announce the following executive decisions: (1) Immediate withdrawal of all references and cases against Peoples Party workers and their leaders including Ms Bhutto and Mr Zardari. (2) Dismissal of Mr Muzaffar Shah’s government in Sindh and a public commitment to hold free and fair elections there under the supervision of the army and an independent election commission after Operation Clean-Up has been concluded to the satisfaction of GHQ. (3) A public commitment to constitute a new and independent election commission immediately with the approval of the opposition. (4) A public commitment accepting the principle of mid-term elections.
Once these actions are taken, Mr Sharif has to invite the opposition for immediate talks to hammer out the exact modalities involved in the transition period. He has to be willing to discuss issues like the 8th Amendment, National Security Council, proportional representation etc.
If this should seem like a tall order to Mr Sharif, which it is in reality, then the poor fellow’s goose is as good as cooked already, despite any desperate flights of fancy he may indulge in for some time more at the behest of the hawks and PPP-haters around him. What then?
The army, despite Gen Asif Nawaz’s avowed reluctance to meddle in politics, might be compelled to counsel the President to save the system in one of two ways. That is, to engineer a revolt within the Muslim League so that we can have a brand new prime minister and cabinet which is prepared to play ball with whatever opposition is left. Or to send all the assemblies packing and call fresh elections.
The first option will be resisted by Mr Sharif with all the billions at his disposal. If it doesn’t work, what will the powers-that-be think of next? At any rate, if Mr Sharif manages to hang on with the skin of his teeth, Ms Bhutto is not likely to call off her movement. So we will be back to square one.
The second option is equally problematic and raises as many questions as it answers. What legal justification will the President give which can stand up in the Supreme Court? What sort of an interim government should there be? Who will head it? Will it have credibility? How soon will elections be called? Under whose supervision? Who will be barred from contesting? What will the President’s own decision be regarding a second term, the 8th Amendment etc? Will it sharpen the political divide as it did in 1990? Will it also require the President to swallow his pride and implicitly admit the error of his ways in 1990? Is he man enough to accept his failings and rectify them now?
No, we’re afraid, it doesn’t look good at all, the questions outnumber the answers. Are we then fated to end up with the simplest solution of all? It is a matter of days not months before we will know whether either Mr Sharif or President Ishaq Khan or neither of them have a solution for us. We wait with bated breath for a change of scenario.