There is a definite sense of drift in the air. It suggests more than a hint of danger. It evokes more than a distant alarm. The “never-say-die” thunder of our ideologues doesn’t seem to bind. The “all-is-under-control” reassurance of our politicians doesn’t seem to inspire. In fact, it looks as though our leaders are groping in the dark and don’t know what to say or do.
Kargil is at the top of the heap. There are many simple questions but few straightforward answers. The irony is that everyone in Pakistan claims to “know” exactly what has happened even though nobody “knows” for sure what will follow.
One official says that the Kashmiri “mujahideen” have captured some strategic ridges which lie on India’s side of the LoC. Therefore the question of “infiltrators” from Pakistan doesn’t arise. It follows then that the USA and G-8 are victims of misplaced concreteness engineered by Indian propaganda when they demand that Pakistan should “withdraw” these “infiltrators” from India’s side of the LoC.
Another official admits that regular troops of the Pakistan army have, over a period of time, seized heights which lie in no-man’s land on and around the LoC in the Kargil-Drass-Batalik sector. This is no big deal, the world is told, because India did much the same sort of thing when it seized similarly placed territory, including Siachin, in the past. The question of a Pakistani “withdrawal” from these heights is therefore linked, at the very least, to India’s withdrawal from similar heights seized in the past.
Both officials claim that a military conflict is raging in the snow clad regions of Kargil between the Kashmiri mujahideen and Pakistani troops on one side and Indian soldiers on the other. But both are sanguine that a full-fledged war between Pakistan and India can be ruled out.
Such dubious certainties aside, we are confounded by statements from our leaders which seem to suggest a disquieting degree of divergence. The PM is apparently keen that both Pakistan and India should go “beyond their stated positions on Kashmir” in quest of enduring peace in the region, a remark which raises the hackles of many people in the country. The unfortunate impression has also been created that the political leadership was not adequately consulted by the military leadership before Kargil was embroiled in conflict. The military leadership has countered with the remark that only the political leadership of the country can order a “withdrawal” from Kargil even as it insists in the same breath that such a withdrawal cannot possibly be “unilateral”! The mood was recently captured by a front-page photograph in the newspapers which showed the PM waving serenely to the troops at the LoC even as the COAS was punching the air with a fist. There is more.
We were informed last week by the Indian press that a certain Mr Niaz Naik, a former foreign secretary, acting as a personal emissary of the Pakistani PM, had flown to New Delhi in a Falcon jet to meet with the Indian PM and explore avenues for a mutually “face-saving” settlement. But before we could analyse the implications of this “back-door” diplomacy, a Pakistani Foreign Office “spokesman” firmly put down such speculation. Two days later, however, Mr Naik was reported to have confirmed his trip to New Delhi which included a discreet meeting with the Indian PM. What are we to make of this?
On the other side of the border, the mood is belligerent and uncompromising. Indians of every shade have donned the war-paint. Indeed, as the body bags mount, the clamour to “teach Pakistan a lesson” rises ominously. An election year in India has never impinged so gravely on Pakistan’s fate as 1999.
Meanwhile, the international community is openly tilting towards India. This is not surprising. India has successfully portrayed itself as the aggrieved party. But the real reason is that Kargil has all but derailed the February Summit on which Western hopes for confidence-building measures between the two countries, without significantly addressing the core issue of Kashmir, were based. The threat of a nuclear war in South Asia also gives many people sleepless nights in the West.
Mr Sartaj Aziz has been to New Delhi without much luck. General Zinni of Centcom has talked to the Pakistani PM and COAS. Now Niaz Niak has hobnobbed with Atal Behari Vajpayee. Is a solution in sight?
Some Pakistanis say that “it’s now or never because we have India by the throat”. While we share their passion and outrage, we cannot accept the logic of their statement which inevitably leads to war. No nuclear-weapons state can grab another nuclear-weapons state by the throat and get away with it. Then there are Pakistanis who want “peace at all costs”. While we share their concern and fear, we cannot accept the logic of their statement which also leads to war. In the foreseeable future, peace between Pakistan and India can only be built on the deterrence provided by nuclear weapons. In other words, we have to be ready for war if we want peace.
Pakistan needs decisive and visionary leadership to tackle this crisis. If Nawaz Sharif fails, he will not be the only loser.