The politics of Sindh has taken a potentially destabilising turn with the ouster of Governor Lt-Gen (r) Moinuddin Haider and the installation of Mr Ghaus Ali Shah, MNA, as Islamabad’s plenipotentiary “advisor” in the province. But this development hasn’t come as a surprise to Sindh-watchers. In fact, shortly after the arrant Rana Maqbool was appointed IGP Sindh last October and there was talk of establishing an “advisory council” to the Governor, we feared that Governor Haider’s stint in Karachi would be short and bitter (TFT Editorial “Time long past”, November 6-12, 1998): “As a simple soldier newly arrived in the sordid and treacherous world of Sharifian politics, General Haider has been squarely placed in the eye of a federally generated storm….we feel sorry for him. Unless he has nerves of steel and has thoroughly imbibed the invaluable Discourses of Machiavelli, he could be among the eventual casualties of Nawaz Sharif’s circus”. In the event, Mr Haider’s insistence on remaining a “neutral” umpire in a politically volatile situation was unacceptable to Mr Sharif and he was given his marching orders last week. What is Mr Sharif’s agenda and how does Mr Shah expect to fulfil it in Sindh?
As everyone knows, Mr Sharif went out of his way to mollycoddle the MQM during the better part of 1997. The relationship began to sour in 1998 when the MQM wanted more power in Sindh at the expense of the PML. But it actually broke down when the MQM refused to support Mr Sharif’s proposed 15th amendment Shariat bill on the grounds that the bill had less to do with Shariah and more to do with the prime minister’s quest for absolute power. Mr Sharif responded by sacking the coalition government, suspending the provincial assembly and promulgating Governor’s Rule. When the MQM flexed its muscle on the streets, the Sindh police retaliated with “encounters” and Islamabad hauled up MQM militants before speedy anti-terrorist courts.
Having “defeated” the MQM in Sindh last year, Mr Sharif now sought to “conquer” Benazir Bhutto in 1999. She was convicted for corruption in April. Fearing arrest, she decided to stay away from Pakistan. That suited Mr Sharif because it led to considerable demoralisation in the PPP. Then the noose was tightened around Asif Zardari with the same result. It was now time to send Governor Haider packing and establish the writ of the PML in Sindh through Mr Shah.
Mr Ghaus Ali Shah’s agenda is simple enough. His job is to browbeat, cajole, bamboozle, con and hustle demoralised and fatigued sections of the PPP and MQM to join hands with him so that a PML-dominated assembly and government can be restored to the province. The aim of such a government would be to supply the maximum number of Sindhi votes in favour of Mr Sharif in the Senate elections in March 2000 when the prime minister hopes to demonstrate the required 2/3rds majority in both houses of parliament in order to push through the 15th amendment. (Incidentally, Mr Sharif’s recent overtures to the Awami National Party in the NWFP are also aimed at achieving the same objective.) What are Mr Shah’s chances of success?
Mr Shah is not Jam Sadiq Ali. The latter was a Piplia who knew how to make inroads into his old party. He was also given a free hand by President Ghulam Ishaq Khan to make whatever deals he liked with the MQM. But Mr Shah will have to deal with two bitter adversaries instead of one. And if the PPP and the MQM can demonstrate the tactical wisdom to jointly resist his encroachments, he may end up sorely disappointing Mr Sharif in time to come.
There is one other lesson from the Jam Sadiq era which Mr Sharif might be advised to remember as he waylays Sindh. When the Jam and the MQM raped the province in 1992, even President Ishaq Khan couldn’t allay the fears of the Pakistan army about the likely national security consequences of the duo’s repressive policies. What, therefore, will Mr Shah do if and when law and order breaks down in the province at the alter of political expediency, if foreign inspired urban terrorism or rural sub-nationalism rears its ugly head again in the charged environment triggered by unfolding events along the Line of Control in Kashmir? Will Islamabad’s desperate party-political gambit in Sindh flounder on the rock of the three Ks Karachi, Kashmir and Kalashnikov? And if so, who will be the loser?
The decision to appoint Mr Shah as de facto chief minister of Sindh in the absence of a functioning provincial assembly is also likely to be challenged in the courts. This is just as well. If Mr Sharif is to govern Sindh his way, it is better that he should have the stamp of supreme court authority on his advisor’s writ. And if he is to be stopped in his tracks for one weighty reason or another, it is best that he is derailed by the courts than by anybody else. In either case, however, we may be assured that Sindh is in for a rocky ride once again.