Mr Asif Zardari and Ms Benazir Bhutto have made some statements recently that should make us sit up and take note. Similarly, the MMA’s anti-Musharraf movement seems to be a lot of huffing and puffing without any real attempt to bring the house down. What’s going on?
Mr Zardari predicts that general elections will be held in 2005. He hasn’t explained why, but then politicians are past masters at transposing fervent hope for cold reality. He sees his freedom after eight years of incarceration not just as a measure of his own vindication but also as a sign of his party’s resurgence in the wake of General Musharraf’s presumed “political compulsions”. In the same breath, however, Mr Zardari, has announced that Ms Bhutto is not terribly keen on ascending the prime ministerial throne for the third time and that Mr Amin Fahim is their chosen candidate for the job. The statement is significant. It obliquely concedes General Musharraf’s stance that he may be prepared to reconcile with the PPP but will not consent to a third Bhutto premiership.
Mr Zardari says there is no “done” deal. But Ms Bhutto has not denied that parleys are continuing. Now she claims that General Musharraf wants American approval for a presidential system in Pakistan. True or not, the fact is that General Musharraf is actually running a presidential system right now by virtue of being both president and army chief. Indeed, he would love to institutionalize it by becoming a directly elected president with the same constitutional clout that he currently enjoys.
This conclusion is reinforced by General Musharraf’s macho style of aggressively presiding over cabinet meetings in military camouflage while a meek prime minister in civvies sits alongside. He is also wont to appear in natty civilian suits on public occasions. In other words, he’s an army chief in uniform when a display of brute power and unquestioned authority is needed and a president in civvies when he is in a cajoling or solicitous mood. More significantly, General Musharraf also seems to think that he is hugely popular not just abroad but also in Pakistan. How else can one explain his determination to hold a presidential referendum in 2002 despite the weight of history and good advice to the contrary by close friends? How else can one account for his statement that “96% of Pakistanis” want him to be both army chief and president? Now that he has got a pat on the back from the Transatlantic trio of Bush and Blair and Chirac, he is likely to relish this perspective more than ever before.
In order to contest direct presidential elections, General Musharraf would first have to amend the constitution by a 2/3 majority. But he cannot do this without support from the PPP. Is all this talk of “national reconciliation”, therefore, a harbinger of a deal on the presidential system? We think not. The PPP would be insane to sign a short term deal which would amount to selling its long-term party-soul to the devil. Alternatively, of course, he could wrap up parliament and unilaterally hold a direct presidential election. But that would bring him face to face with the same dilemma of illegitimacy that marred his referendum in 2002 and has dogged him since.
No. President General Pervez Musharraf’s best bet is to continue wearing two hats for as long as possible. Equally, the best bets of the PPP and MMA hinge on their ability to force him to quit as army chief. But there’s the rub. The PPP and MMA are ideologically at each other’s throats even more than they are at General Musharraf’s. Indeed, both would love a relationship with the military that puts them squarely in the front seat while conceding national security decision making to the military from the back seat. That is the arrangement Ms Bhutto had with the military in her second term and that is the arrangement the MMA has sought with the military in its first term in power. But that is exactly what General Musharraf has personally denied Ms Bhutto until now and that is precisely what he has progressively reneged on with the MMA in the last two years under international pressure and new regional realities.
The PPP wants to be soft on General Musharraf in order to squeeze some political space from him via new elections. But the MMA fears new elections because it is bound to lose its current space. The MMA betrayed the PPP when it signed on the LFO. Now the PPP will not risk an alliance with the MMA unless it guarantees fresh elections. Does this mean General Pervez Musharraf is sitting pretty at least until 2007?
No. The basic flaw in his system is getting aggravated. There is no succession principle enshrined in his dual role as president and army chief. If something were to happen to him, the whole system would be up for grabs. And that is not a prospect his two critical constituencies the military and the international community are likely to appreciate for longer than necessary. That is why talk of deals and protests and threats is likely to do the rounds in 2005 without any end in sight.