Yesterday, President Ghulam Ishaq appeared invincible because both Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto were on a tight leash. Today, he seems a besieged man. Yesterday, Benazir Bhutto was determined to topple Mr Sharif. Today, she looks decidedly comfy with him. Yesterday, Nawaz Sharif was afraid he mightn’t survive 1992. Today, he is looking good for another decade. Overnight, sworn enemies have become long-lost friends and bosom buddies of yore are on the verge of splitting up.
Mr Sharif is looming larger than life. Gone is the gawky young man who hitched a ride with Gen Gillani, clutched at the coattails of Gen Zia, submitted meekly to President Ishaq and but his fingernails off whenever Benazir Bhutto sneezed. Today he is a supremely confident prime minister, determined to call the shorts. Benazir Bhutto has been sidelined, President Ishaq cornered, the press silenced, the cabinet browbeaten, the Muslim League harnessed. Mr Sharif’s family controls steels, textiles, sugar and flour production in the country. Now it’s eyeing United or Habib Bank. He is building motorways and airports, handing out yellow cabs and plots of land, gushing support to victims of rape and theft, locking up drug-pushers, cleaning-up universities and targeting sectarianists. This is surely a neat tally of accomplishments by his standards. But is this all for real, is he here to stay?
There are many explanations for Mr Sharif’s new-found vigour. Some conspiracy-theorists say he has ditched tottering old friends for new, more powerful allies — like the Americans — who are supposed to have encouraged him to befriend Bhutto and bid farewell to President Ishaq. Others say Mr Sharif was always inclined to have grandiose visions of himself as a Mughal emperor (he said as much to Miss Emma Duncan who wrote about it in her best-selling book “Breaking The Curfew” in 1988) and has finally, though foolishly, succumbed to his tendencies.
There are also those who argue that Mr Sharif’s arrogance of power is no different from other Pakistani leaders. Who has ever wanted to share power with the President, notwithstanding the compromising circumstances of coming to office? Mr Junejo was a timid fellow, almost a non-entity, when Gen Zia made him PM. Yet he was soon stepping on the General’s toes. Benazir Bhujtto promised to abide by the terms of her agreement with the establishment in 1988, yet she reneged within months of becoming PM. So if power has finally gone to Mr Sharif’s head, is it anything to wonder about?
In fact, say Sharif loyalists, now is a good time to cut President Ishaq down to size. If he is re-elected as an all-powerful President, Mr Sharif will be fated to await the President’s ire. Is this, then, a do or die situation for the prime minister?
Mr Sharif is confident that he has President Ishaq on the run. Indeed, if Ms Bhutto lends a helping hand, it might be possible to clip the President’s wings once and for all. But can Mr Sharif succeed where Bhutto, Junejo and Benazir failed to become all-powerful?
Mr Sharif’s lobby confidently argues that President Ishaq cannot dismiss the assemblies. There are two obstacles in his path, they say. First, given the rulings of the Supreme Court on two earlier dismissals, the President’s scope for justification is severely restricted. it will not be easy to find an acceptable pretext. Corruption charges, by themselves, simply won’t do. Second, if he had dismissed parliament last year (e.g., during the PDA movement), his motives might not have been suspect. They now most certainly will be. People will say he has done so because his own hide was at stake. In other words, Mr Khan has already become a lame-duck President.
There may be merit in such reasoning. But it might still be premature to write President Ishaq off. The old man isn’t known to be a survivor for nothing. he is perfectly capable of springing a surprise or two yet, considering the army will back him to the hilt against Mr Sharif. Consider variations of the following scenario.
If the chief ministers of Sindh, Balochistan and the NWFP dissolve the provincial assemblies saying the provinces are opposed to repealing the 8th amendment, the President can cite the “inability of the Federation to carry on” as sufficient reason to dismiss parliament. He might then clinch the argument by announcing some “extra-constitutional deviations” acceptable to powerful factions. In particular, he could bury suspicions of his own motives by abjuring his future candidature for the Presidency.
Of course, matters might not conceivably come to this pass. Mr Sharif may not get the votes required for repeal because Mr Bhutto might do a last-minute deal with the President and a revolt could be launched against Mr Sharif. Equally, Mr Sharif might confound everyone by calling elections himself — notice his recent “election-campaign” to win hearts and minds.
Whatever happens, we are in for surprises. All players are marshalling their forces. All the political worms have crept out of the woodwork. There is an unmistakable stench of “deja vu” in the air at the foot of the Margallas.